McCown Warns: U.S. Inbound Trade Declines Sharply Due to China Tariffs
Containerized imports into the United States are expected to experience a historic decline in September 2025, according to analyst John McCown, as tariffs on China continue to affect the busiest trans-Pacific trade routes. These tariffs, imposed by President Donald Trump, have had a significant impact on U.S. trade, despite several temporary pauses aimed at easing tensions and giving businesses time to adjust.
In August, inbound volumes at the top 10 U.S. ports were slightly higher than the same month in 2024, up 0.1%, according to McCown’s monthly report. This followed July volumes that were 3.2% higher than the previous year. The July increase was largely due to frontloading shipments, where importers rushed cargo to the U.S. to meet an August 7 deadline for a tariff renewal. This strategy temporarily boosted import volumes but absorbed much of the eastbound peak-season traffic.
Despite the announcement in August of another 90-day tariff pause, now extended into November, the overall effect has been a dampening of demand. Economic uncertainty and tariff-driven inflation have weakened the appetite for imports, which is reflected in lower container rates on the eastbound trans-Pacific routes. McCown warns that all indicators suggest September and the remainder of 2025 could be challenging months for U.S. container traffic.
“When U.S. container volume data is compared to global figures, there is a noticeable and widening gap,” McCown said. “Declines in U.S. lanes are being mitigated by increased volume elsewhere.”
Container exports from the Far East were up 6.3% year-over-year in July, setting a new record, according to Container Trade Statistics, which collects data directly from ocean carriers. McCown noted that without the frontloading surge, U.S. volumes in July would have actually declined, reflecting the negative impact of tariffs.
Historically, U.S. import volumes grew 15.2% in 2024, often outpacing GDP growth, but the trend is expected to reverse in 2025. A revised forecast from the National Retail Federation projects a 3.4% decline in annual inbound container volumes. McCown added:
“This translates into the remaining four months of 2025 being 15.7% lower than the same months in 2024.”
The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest U.S. container port, expects inbound volumes to drop 10% in September year-over-year, a prediction McCown agrees with, anticipating a double-digit decline for the month.
China remains the largest source of inbound containers, accounting for 29.3% of total imports in May, though this is down from a historical peak of 40%. Container bookings from China to the U.S. during the first week of September fell 26% compared to the same week last year. Westbound backhaul moves to China also dropped 18%, despite the latest tariff pause.
McCown cautions that if the tariffs are fully implemented, they could lead to broader declines in trade, especially if China responds with retaliatory tariffs, affecting volumes in both directions. He emphasized that year-over-year declines in inbound container volume are rare, historically seen only during the 2009 financial crisis and the pandemic, both of which were brief. In normal years, imports have grown two to three times faster than GDP.
“The current downturn is caused solely by tariffs, and unfortunately, there is nothing at present suggesting that it will be short-lived,” McCown concluded.
In summary, the combination of ongoing U.S.-China tariffs, economic uncertainty, and tariff-driven inflation is projected to significantly reduce inbound container volumes in the U.S. for the remainder of 2025. Analysts warn that the decline is likely to continue for several months, potentially reshaping the U.S.’s position in global trade.
Source: FreightWaves (by Stuart Chirls)
