US import tariffs are becoming a primary factor significantly increasing uncertainty across domestic and global supply chains. The latest wave of increases from the Trump administration, targeting everything from heavy-duty trucks to industrial goods from China and India, is forcing transportation and manufacturing businesses to quickly seek stable solutions.
The Context of Rising US Import Tariffs
This latest wave of US import tariffs comes as the transportation industry is said to be experiencing an “extended freight recession.” According to Marc Schaffer, Principal Economist at transportation technology company Breakthrough, shipping volumes are largely flat, and stakeholders are focusing on cost control while maintaining key carrier partnerships.
“The data over the last couple of months has shown almost 0% year-over-year growth. The market is showing stagnation, no major decisions, and a lot of uncertainty,” Schaffer told FreightWaves.
The Direct Impact of US Import Tariffs on Industries
- Road Transport and Input Costs
One of the most notable proposals is a 25% US import tariff on medium and heavy-duty trucks. This measure, stemming from a Section 232 investigation, is forecast to put additional pressure on small carriers and complicate truck replacement cycles already slowed by excess capacity and high financing costs.
- Cost Pressures on Manufacturers
Manufacturers are struggling to adapt to the constant fluctuations of US import tariffs. At Fictiv, a company providing procurement services for custom mechanical components, their customers are facing a lack of cost transparency.
“We see [tariffs] as the new normal,” said Vinny Licata, Head of Logistics and Import Compliance at Fictiv. “What we’ve done is integrated into our platform, providing our customers with more transparency on what the duty costs will be.”
Fictiv’s platform can quote live tariff rates and provide real-time cost visibility as US import tariffs fluctuate between 15% and 50% depending on the product category or country of origin.
Trends in Adapting to the Wave of US Import Tariffs
- Accelerated Nearshoring
To mitigate geopolitical risk and uncertainty from US import tariffs, domestic and nearshoring manufacturing activity is increasing.
Fictiv reports that operations in Mexico are expanding under the USMCA framework, with some customers shifting production south of the border. However, Licata also pointed out that relocating production is not easy.
“Once you start production in a region, you can’t just easily move it. We are helping customers understand the cost implications before they make that commitment.”
- The Divide Between Large and Small Businesses
While large corporations like Eli Lilly and Fujifilm can more easily absorb costs and invest in US facilities, small and medium-sized manufacturers are still under significant pressure from US import tariffs.
Licata predicts, “You will see more manufacturing come back to the US, but it won’t look like the old days — it will be advanced, automated, and technology-driven.”
Data and Transparency: The New Competitive Edge
In a context where US import tariffs cause significant volatility, technology and data visibility become critically important.
Mr. Schaffer agrees with this view. Breakthrough’s clients are relying heavily on lane-level pricing analytics and sustainability metrics to find efficiencies amid cost pressure.
“It’s all about using data to make smarter decisions, whether that’s switching modes, reducing empty miles, or identifying alternative fuels that deliver cost parity,” Schaffer said.
Forecast and Conclusion
Both experts Schaffer and Licata predict that 2026 will be a year of slow freight growth, with stable but modest rate increases—around 2% to 3%. Pressure from US import tariffs, thin profit margins, and policy uncertainty will continue to test the industry’s resilience.
“Until we get more definitive information and clarity,” Schaffer concluded, “companies will continue to do what they’re doing — trying to hold steady and control what they can.”
Clearly, US import tariffs are not just a short-term cost issue, but a factor reshaping the long-term strategy of the entire global supply chain.
Source: FreightWaves
